Belgian industry can reduce its carbon emissions by at least 90% by 2050, using technologies that already exist or can be rolled out by 2040. However, this requires electricity to become cheaper for large consumers, and urgent action must be taken to increase green energy capacity. The next five years will be crucial. Researchers have pinpointed five priorities.
5 essential steps for Belgian industry to achieve climate targets and survive
Vincent Merckx
Published:
Can Belgium make its heavy industry green without driving it away? In other words, is the European climate target of net-zero by 2050 achievable for large emitters? And how should we go about it?
Although emissions from heavy industry in Belgium have fallen by half since 1990, they remain significant. Combustion and other processes alone account for 28% of total greenhouse gas emissions. If you add energy production to that, the total is almost 50%.
The big players in the chemical, steel and cement industries are largely responsible for high CO2 emissions: ArcelorMittal in Ghent, TotalEnergies, BASF and Shell in the port of Antwerp, and the Walloon lime and cement companies.
Environment and economy
The issue concerns both the environment and the economy. ArcelorMittal postponed a green investment of €1.1 billion in Ghent this year because it threatened to become unprofitable. The company is not only Belgium’s largest CO2 emitter but also a major employer: it’s responsible for 8% of emissions and 5,000 jobs.
Researchers at the Vrije Universiteit Brussel looked into this at the request of the climate service of the FPS Public Health. They examined more than 180 technological solutions.
Their conclusion: yes, Belgium can retain its industry and significantly reduce emissions. It is indeed possible to reduce CO2 emissions by at least 90 per cent by 2050, and it can be achieved with technologies that already exist or will be available by 2040.
These are their findings.
With carbon capture, you store the emissions from one product and then use them as raw material for another
1. Invest in industrial heat pumps
The researchers have high expectations for electrification. Take industrial heat pumps, which work on the same principle as the heat pumps we use to heat or cool our homes but reach higher temperatures.
In theory, electrification with heat pumps, electric blast furnaces and boilers is sufficient for 90% of Belgian industry. These can already achieve temperatures of up to 700° Celsius. For the steel and cement sectors, which require temperatures of 1,400° and above, there is still work to be done. Technologically, it is possible, but it is much more difficult to make it profitable.
Nevertheless, electrifying those lower temperatures is almost always a no-regret measure, the researchers say. It delivers large CO2 reductions at relatively low cost.
2. Some sectors will not be able to do without carbon capture
We cannot yet use electricity everywhere, and some sectors will have to continue using fossil fuels for the time being. It will be necessary to capture CO2 at the pipe and store it elsewhere, for example in empty gas fields or under the seabed. This is called carbon capture and storage (CCS).
However, CCS is not uncontroversial. Opponents argue that it offers a lifeline for fossil fuels, even though they are the cause of the climate crisis. Earlier this month, scientists warned in the journal Nature that too much reliance is being placed on CCS and that we may be able to store 10 times less CO2 than previously assumed.
The VUB researchers say that, certainly in the cement and lime industry, there is “no credible” way to achieve net-zero without CCS. It is also becoming an essential technology for the chemical industry. In principle, this could also be electrified, but that would cost much more.
The theoretical potential of CCS is enormous. If you use the captured CO2 to make new products, in some cases you can achieve up to 350% CO2 reduction. This is the case, for example, with Carbstone from the Genk-based company Orbix, which makes building blocks with carbon instead of cement.
“Essentially, you store the emissions from one product and then use them as raw material for another, thereby reducing emissions there too,” says VUB researcher Tomas Wyns. “A brick has a lifespan of 50 to 100 years. That CO2 will not be released immediately.”
3. Go all-in
Industrial heat pumps and CCS can make the biggest difference. But where possible, blue hydrogen – based on fossil fuels, but with CO2 capture – plastic recycling, biomass, waste incineration and alternative or synthetic fuels can also be used.
The chemical sector in particular, which is the most difficult to decarbonise, will have to apply a mix of technologies.
4. Make electricity cheaper
It is technically possible to electrify a large part of industry, but it must remain affordable. This can only be achieved if electricity becomes cheaper, to a maximum of three times the cost price of gas for industrial users. This is sufficient to make electrification profitable for temperatures up to 2,000° Celsius.
For the highest temperatures, the price gap should not exceed 1.5 times. At present, however, companies easily pay four times as much for electricity as for gas.
One way to reduce the price is to implement a tax shift. This would make electricity cheaper by shifting VAT and excise duties to fossil fuels.
The Flemish government is planning such a tax shift, though Wyns describes it as insufficient. In its coalition agreement, the federal government said it would “investigate” a tax shift.
Companies can also influence the price they pay for electricity by agreeing long-term contracts. This guarantees a certain level of consumption in exchange for lower prices. This is already happening in France.
5. The next five years will be crucial
In principle, industry can make the required investments, but all the necessary infrastructure must be in place to make this possible.
Take carbon storage. CO2 can only be captured, transported and stored once an entire chain of infrastructure has been set up, from pipelines to storage facilities, within the EU or elsewhere.
Regulations must also be in place. There are currently hardly any large-scale CCS projects in operation, although the Norwegian energy company Equinor is building a CO2 pipeline from Norway to Belgium.
The researchers estimate that we have about 10 years to roll out this infrastructure. Among their suggestions are providing fast-track permits for CCS projects.
The electricity grid also needs to be strengthened, as demand will double by 2040, according to the researchers. This means the expansion of green energy must be scaled up quickly. Projects such as Ventilus – a high-voltage connection spanning 82km between Zeebrugge and Avelgem – will have to be implemented.
But these are large projects that can take years to develop. That is why the next five years are crucial: decisions must be made, money must be made available, and construction must take place. From 2030, industry will then have another 20 years, until 2050, to make the necessary investments.
“The technology industry in our country has already reduced its emissions by more than 40% and electrified around 60% of its activities. We are well on track to achieve the 2030 targets,” says Bart Steukers, CEO of the technology federation Agoria.
He stresses that becoming climate neutral by 2050 requires new, major investments, which are often not economically viable.
“Moreover, our competitors – industrial companies on other continents – often make the same investments to a lesser extent or not at all,” he says. “Without stable and targeted policy, we risk our technology companies being priced out of the market.”