With hybrid attacks on the rise, Russia is attempting to undermine European support for Ukraine, both directly and indirectly, says Belgium’s Chief of Defence Frederik Vansina. “So far, Russia has always remained below the threshold set by Article 5 of the NATO Treaty, which equates an attack on one NATO country with an attack on all. But there is a fear that sooner or later they will cross that threshold.”
On Friday, Belgium’s National Security Council will meet to examine the so-called hybrid warfare threat. The federal security services and the relevant ministers are working on a plan to better protect Belgium against potential incidents.
“We have certainly seen these incidents escalate since the start of the year,” says Frederik Vansina, Chief of the Defence Staff. “That is why the government is convening the National Security Council.”
At present, there is no specific cause for concern or concrete threat to Belgium, says Vansina. “Intelligence from our eastern allies points to an increase. It is important to piece everything together and gain a better picture of the situation.”
Is Russia testing Europe?
In the incidents of recent months, the focus has mainly been on Russia. It is sometimes said that Russia is ‘testing’ Europe. What are we to make of that?
‘Russia is now in its fifth year of the war. They are relatively bogged down in the Ukrainian mud, but they are making slow yet steady progress,’ says Vansina. ‘Ukraine really needs Western support – particularly from Europe – to keep up the fight.’
“And Russia, of course, wants to undermine that support. Directly, as we saw in an incident at Leipzig Airport, for example, but also indirectly – by undermining the resolve of Ukraine’s allies and the support of public opinion.”
Russia is “sensible enough” to stay just below the threshold of NATO’s Article 5, says Vansina. That article states that an attack on one NATO member state is an attack on all member states, and that NATO will respond.
What is Belgium doing?
Belgium is sometimes referred to as an ‘interesting’ target for hybrid attacks. “Belgium is home to NATO headquarters, Euroclear (a company that manages funds and investments, including frozen Russian assets), the ports, key military bases, …” Vansina dishes up a long list.
“Belgium is also a logistical transit country. In the event of a conflict, many reinforcements would arrive via Belgian ports and airports.”
So, we are an attractive target for adversaries, but we are extremely vigilant, says Vansina. “We already have a high level of security in place, depending on the sensitivity of the military bases.”
Vansina refers, amongst other things, to the additional investment in the capacity to detect and intercept drones. At the end of last year, the government brought forward investment in its anti-drone plan, following reports of drones flying over military bases and airports.
‘An accelerated investment of 50 million euros was made, enabling us to improve the security of our bases,’ says Vansina. ‘Most of that equipment has now been delivered and put into service. Our bases are now better protected against drones than they were a year ago.’
“We are also currently working on integrating sensors from other organisations, such as air traffic control provider Skeyes, into our air command centre,” says Vansina. “We are constantly taking measures to improve the security of our installations, and therefore also that of the public.”