If Belgium is to become carbon-neutral by 2050, in addition to a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, there is a need for reforestation and a radical transformation of land use, agricultural practices and forest management. This is according to a study by the Climate Change Department of the FPS Public Health.
Radical changes to agriculture needed for Belgium to be carbon-neutral by 2050, study finds
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Belgium will have to drastically cut its greenhouse gas emissions across the board to become carbon-neutral. Certain remaining emissions must be offset by natural carbon sinks, such as forests or permanent grassland. These are, however, being depleted by urbanisation, the conversion of permanent grassland into arable land, and a reduced capacity of forests and natural ecosystems to absorb CO2, against the backdrop of global warming.
“Our absorption capacity has decreased by a factor of six since 1990,” says Camille Reyniers of the Climate Change Department. “We are at risk of ending up in a situation where our natural ecosystems would become a net source of emissions.”
The study, carried out by researchers from Vito, Sytra (UCLouvain) and Gembloux Agro-Bio Tech (ULiège), analyses three land-use scenarios: one based on current trends, one that takes into account approved or planned policy measures, and one of radical change.
It concludes that only the radical change scenario makes it possible to meet climate neutrality targets by 2050.
One of the key measures in that scenario concerns livestock farming and involves a significant reduction in livestock numbers (45% for dairy cows, 70% for pigs and 71% for cattle compared with 2022 levels), freeing up a great deal of land currently used for animal feed.
We are at risk of ending up in a situation where our natural ecosystems would become a net source of emissions
As a result, 278,000 hectares of agricultural land – more than a fifth of Belgium’s total agricultural area – could be repurposed for other uses: reforestation, the reflooding of drained peatlands, or the conversion of nearly 10,000 hectares of drained meadows into wetlands.
This scenario, alongside people changing to a more plant-based diet, provides for a greater scale of agroforestry and organic farming. It also entails greater diversity in forests, particularly in terms of tree species and their age, as a younger tree absorbs more CO2 than an older one.
The authors of the study highlight the co-benefits that the most ambitious scenario would bring, such as greater resilience of ecosystems to extreme weather conditions or enhanced biodiversity.
Finally, they highlight the need for a “coherent and stable” policy framework and close coordination between the various levels of government to successfully bring about a transition, which must be accompanied by support for the agricultural sector.