Scientists are testing a model in the wake of the fire in the High Fens that is designed to improve the prediction of future wildfires. They are simulating how the blaze will spread – where it will go, how fast and how intensely.
“The ultimate aim of the model is to find out how the fire will spread, how quickly that will happen and to which areas. But also, for example, whether the fire will become more or less intense,” says Ghent University professor Jan Baetens.
It’s a useful tool, though it’s not yet fully refined. “It’s an experimental prediction model,” Baetens says. “The fire service can’t use it yet; it’s still too early for that. But this fire does give us the ideal opportunity to test the model thoroughly.”
Countries such as France, Italy and Spain already have a prediction model. Baetens: “They consistently use it during fire service operations, particularly in the case of large wildfires. This gives the fire service much greater insight into the situation on the ground, and especially into how the fire will develop over the next six to 10 hours.”
Researchers have tested models from other countries and focused on one model over the past four months. It cannot be adopted directly as it must be adapted to the Belgian context.
There’s no point in just creating a map for Wallonia. We need a map for the whole country
And that is the sticking point at the moment: there is not enough data to run the model with sufficient reliability. There is no map showing the type of soil, vegetation and ground cover to indicate how a fire could be fuelled.
That map is in the making. “Our colleagues at the University of Liège are working on it, but that requires time and expertise,” Baetens says. “Moreover, there’s no point in just creating a map for Wallonia. We need a map for the whole country.”
Over the past two days, the scientists have been able to test the experimental model extensively during the wildfire in the High Fens, which has caused significant destruction to the unique nature area.
“The results are positive at first glance,” says Baetens. “During the first 12 hours of the fire, we saw that the simulated perimeter matched up quite well with how the fire ultimately developed. But that was the easiest prediction. At that point there was only one source of the fire, whereas now there are several. And that makes it more complex.”
He points out that today we are completely unprepared for a wildfire like the one in the High Fens. “But then again, the conditions this year are extremely exceptional,” he says. “At some point, the question arises as to exactly what you should be preparing for. As a small country, should you fully equip yourself for something that only happens once every few years?”