A study by researchers from Leuven University (KU Leuven) has found that the number of long-term unemployed people that will claim social assistance benefit after having lost their right to claim unemployment benefit is likely to be lower than initial figures had suggested. From the beginning of the year the length of time during which jobseekers can claim unemployment benefit has been limited to 2 years. Initial figures from the Federal Government indicated that almost half of those that had lost their unemployment benefits in the first wave are now receiving social assistance benefit payments from their local public welfare office (OCMW).
Study forecasts that fewer long-term unemployed than expected will end up on social assistance benefit
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However, the KU Leuven study that was published on Tuesday argues that the initial figures are not representative what will be the picture for year as a whole. According to the study, around 34% of all those affected by the measures will end up on social assistance benefit.
This is around 52,000 of the around 180,000 people that will lose their unemployment benefit this year.
Single people more likely to qualify for social assistance benefit
The researchers say that the figure of 46.5% of those that lost their unemployment benefit in January’s first wave is not representative of those that have lost/will lose their unemployment benefit in subsequent waves.
Single people are more likely to qualify for social assistance benefit as they cannot rely on a partner's income.
Among cohabiting couples and heads of households the transition rate is markedly lower. As the proportion of single people decreases and the share of cohabiting couples rises in later waves, the researchers expect the percentage applying and qualifying for social assistance benefit to fall.
In addition to this, those losing their benefits in subsequent waves have been out of work for shorter periods. This increases the likelihood that they will find work. Those that have been unemployed for for longer face considerably worse job prospects.
The researchers stress that their estimates are based on various scenarios and the final figures will depend on labour market conditions and how strictly the new rules are applied. They also note that local public welfare offices are processing significantly more applications than they ultimately approve.