Left-leaning think tank warns: ‘Belgian government's strict migration policy undermines the economy’

Thanks to stricter migration policies, the Belgian government hopes to save more than 1.5 billion euros by the end of this parliament, an amount that is considerably higher than the revenue from the controversial new capital gains tax.

But according to the Minerva think tank, the costs of the stricter policy will weigh heavily on Belgian prosperity in the long term. From the end of the 2030s, more people will die than are born, making migration the only mechanism for maintaining the working population at a manageable level.

‘In ageing, highly educated economies, migration is not an optional policy choice but a structural necessity,’ says political economist and research assistant Hielke Van Doorslaer. ‘Anyone who wants to reduce migration must be honest: that means higher pressure on pensions, unaffordable healthcare and a smaller economy. Less migration is not a saving, but a loss.’

Revenue exceeds costs

Migration not only provides an additional labour supply in occupations on the shortage list, of which there are currently 251 in Flanders, but it also has a positive economic impact, as various studies show. In 2020, the National Bank calculated that migration increased Belgium's GDP by 3.5 per cent in the period from 2012 to 2016.

‘Despite the persistent myth that claims the opposite, in that period the average migrant contributed more in taxes than they cost in benefits and services,’ the report states.

Moreover, the net contribution of migrants to Belgian public finances is largely determined by their position in the labour market. According to the National Bank, first-generation migrants contributed on average slightly less than people without a migration background.

Second-generation migrants (born in Belgium with at least one foreign parent), on the other hand, contributed on average more to the treasury than Belgians without a migrant background. This is due to their young age structure and high participation rate.

Rhetoric vs. reality

Minerva also looked at three foreign cases – Denmark, Italy and the United Kingdom – which also use strong language about “less migration” and “an asylum stop”. However, this rhetoric is often at odds with the policies pursued by these countries: “an implicitly open policy that not only turns a blind eye to economic migration but even actively promotes it”.

Furthermore, harsh migration rhetoric rarely leads to lower migration figures. ‘In all cases studied, promises of a strict and restrictive migration policy did not lead to lower migration, but rather to higher levels.’

Spain, which a few days ago announced that it would regularise half a million people, is a notable exception to this trend. ‘By not problematising migration but using it strategically, Spain is succeeding in combining economic prosperity and social inclusion,’ the report says. Spain's growth is well above the Eurozone average and the country's debt is also falling.

Focus on the labour market

‘In economies with an ageing population and structural labour shortages, systematically raising the barriers to entry is not a sign of political decisiveness, but of short-sightedness,’ the report states. ‘The debate should not focus on reducing inflows at all costs, but on making the most of the positive potential of migration,’ the report reads.

‘The best way to do this is to accelerate the integration of migrants and asylum seekers into the labour market and society.’ And that doesn't have to be limited to highly skilled workers, Van Doorslaer emphasises. ‘We also need a lot of low-skilled and medium-skilled migrants to keep the economy going. The average Belgian is becoming increasingly highly educated. So there are many jobs that we no longer want or are unable to do.’

‘Moreover, these people are not merely workers or employees, they are also consumers: they increase the demand for extra jobs and extra investment. So it's much more nuanced than the rhetoric that suggests these people are “draining the social security system”.’