One-year Prime Minister De Wever: how a Flemish nationalist leads Belgium without upsetting supporters or Francophones

What were the defining moments of De Wever's first year as prime minister? Dave Sinardet, professor of political science at the Flemish Free University of Brussels, the VUB, sees two crucial episodes. ‘At the end of November, De Wever finally reached a budget agreement. This put an end to a deep crisis in his government and allows the comparison with one of his predecessors: Flemish Christian democrat Jean-Luc Dehaene, who led Belgium for seven years in the nineties.  It’s a comparison that PM De Wever likes to make himself, making him a lot more credible.’

‘OK, in terms of content, the budget was a bit of a hodgepodge, without much underlying vision, but that also makes it a classic Belgian compromise à la Dehaene. It was nevertheless an important step in De Wever’s evolution into becoming a Belgian statesman.’

The second moment came a month later, when, after months of discussion, De Wever resisted pressure from the Germans and the European Commission and won his battle in the Euroclear dossier. ‘This suddenly put him on the map as “the European statesman De Wever”.’

A European commission proposal suggested using frozen Russian assets, mainly held at the Brussels-based securities clearing house Euroclear to fund a loan to Ukraine.  Mr De Wever opposed the idea fearing it could unsettle the financial markets and bankrupt Belgium if the country alone was obliged to repay the Russian assets at some point in the future.

'Statesman' may be a somewhat vague and debatable title for a politician, Sinardet admits. ‘But on these two occasions, De Wever certainly demonstrated that he can be a strong leader, both in Belgium and in Europe. Until then, we knew him as a strong rhetorical and strategic politician, but not yet really as a leader or statesman.'

Flemish nationalist and Belgian prime minister

Political scientist Sinardet still believes it's somewhat ironic and paradoxical that a Flemish nationalist politician can be prime minister of Belgium. ‘Ultimately, for a year now De Wever has been prime minister of a country that his party wanted to abolish two decades ago. That is surreal and, again, very Belgian. You could say, tongue in cheek, that De Wever is the most Belgian prime minister ever.’

This being said Sinardet also sees it as an historic step for Belgium and for Flemish nationalism. ‘In the past, it was completely taboo to allow yourself to be corrupted by Belgian power, unless you could take a very big step towards Flemish autonomy.’

‘Hugo Schiltz, a Flemish nationalist Volksunie politician, who once served as budget minister in the Belgian government (1988-91), was rejected by many of his supporters for this reason: the steps towards further autonomy at that point did not go far enough. Whereas De Wever became Belgian Prime Minister without any significant progress in terms of Flemish autonomy. That is historic.’

According to Sinardet, ‘De Wever himself has long realised that many Flemish people are ultimately attached to Belgium, or at least not opposed to Belgium, and that state reform is not really a priority for many people.’ ‘This is also clear from research. So he started proposing Flemish autonomy as a way of giving Flemish people more right-wing policies. If that is possible at the Belgian level, then many Flemish people want him to simply implement it at that level.’

Popular in Francophonia too

In Francophone Belgium De Wever’s premiership is causing fewer waves than could have been expected.  ‘There has not been much controversy about whether or not De Wever is “Prime Minister of all Belgians”. Before he became prime minister, he did say that limiting unemployment benefits in time was a matter for the devolved governments, but it’s a statement he has never repeated.’

Sinardet observes that De Wever is playing a good game and truly presenting himself as the Belgian prime minister. ‘There is still some suspicion among part of the French-speaking press. Dailies La Libre and Le Soir devoted entire analysis pages to the question of whether the current 5-way ‘Arizona government’ and Mr De Wever are not primarily working for Flemish interests after all.’

The conclusions contradict each other. ‘At La Libre, a Christian democrat daily, there are few concerns, but at independent Brussels daily Le Soir, editors call for great vigilance and see many community wrangles haunting the government. So these fears have not completely gone. But I think De Wever has gained popularity because he knows how to present himself strongly on the international stage.’

Budget remains a risk

All in all, his first year in office seems to have been a good one for the prime minister. So what are the future risks for him and his government? ‘The broader social protests against the government are mainly a problem for the left-wing parties in the coalition. Certainly for Flemish socialist Vooruit, and to a lesser extent for Flemish Christian democrat CD&V and its ally Francophone centrist Les Engagés. I think people sense that the pension reforms, which have yet to be implemented, are difficult to stomach for a lot of people.’

According to Sinardet, this is the least popular socio-economic reform being implemented by this government. ‘It affects a lot of people who have worked hard.’

And then there is the budget. ‘That has always been one of De Wever's most important promises: that the budget must be sound. By the end of his term in office, he wants a deficit of no more than 3 per cent of GDP, but we are still a long way from that.’

‘So this year, too, extra money will probably have to be found again. De Wever is already talking about 3 to 4 billion euros. This will once again create the same tensions within the government, which almost collapsed over the budget at the end of last year. Now that same old story threatens to start all over again.’