Flemish scientists examine the impact of climate change on the world’s cities

VITO’s Niels Souverijns told the press agency Belga that while it might seem obvious that they will be more heatwave days by the end of the century, “There was a significant lack of detailed, specific data for cities,” and “this hindered effective response measures and limited the population's ability to adapt.”

Dr Souverijns added that many squares in towns and cities are still being built without any greenery and this is a point that still needs to be addressed.

What also emerged from the study is a striking variation in risk of extreme heat between within conurbations such as Ghent or Antwerp. Suburbs such as De Pinte that is located south of Ghent, are generally cooler than, for example Sint-Amandsberg, that is close to Ghent city centre. Meanwhile, at the port of Antwerp and along the Antwerp Orbital Motorway, it is significantly warmer when there is a heatwave. This is due to presence of a lot of concrete and a lack of greenery.

“Our primary aim is to map the areas of cities that are vulnerable to excess heat in order to help mayors and others take the right measures. Take retirement homes, for example. Wouldn't it be best if they were located in an area where there is plenty of greenery? Currently this is not always the case.”

In Ghent and Antwerp, there are currently around 4 heatwave days per annum. However, this could increase significantly in the future. In a worst-case scenario, the number of heatwave days in Antwerp and Ghent could increase to as many as 50 days per annum. In the best-case scenario, the number will remain under 20 in a few decades’ time.

Dr Souverijns added that heat stress poses increasing dangers to health and that “It is responsible for approximately 500,000 additional deaths per annum worldwide.”