In Copenhagen, Denmark, European Union leaders are discussing the European Commission's proposal to use some €185 billion in frozen Russian assets to provide military and other support to Ukraine for the first time. With American military support for Ukraine likely to come to a halt, the Russian billions held by the Belgian bank Euroclear have suddenly become an interesting alternative. But Belgium does not want to be solely responsible for any Russian billion-euro compensation claims.
For Belgium, bankers’ bank Euroclear and the mountain of Russian money held by this Belgian company is an extremely important and sensitive issue. Euroclear and the Belgian state face major financial risks if Russia were to reclaim the money if, in the meantime, it had already been given to Ukraine .
In parliament this week, federal PM Bart De Wever (Flemish nationalist) said he was ‘not enthusiastic’ about what he considers to be a ‘quick fix’. His main demand is that Belgium should not be the only one to bear the financial risks. If the Russian assets are used to help Ukraine now, then all other EU countries (or as many as possible) must underwrite this and provide a guarantee. The European Commission has some understanding for this demand.
In recent days it’s been reported that the European Central Bank (ECB) could also agree to the legal construction currently on the negotiating table. Previously, the ECB warned against confiscating Russian state assets. This would damage international confidence in Europe and the euro. Now that, at least formally, it is not a matter of “expropriation” or confiscation, that danger is believed to be less great, proponents say.
Too many questions remain at this stage for any decisions to be taken. In the best-case scenario, European leaders will be able to OK the plan at the next European summit in Brussels in three weeks' time. Only then can the legal work begin. That could mean the plan is realised just in time to fill the gap left by America. Ukraine still has sufficient financial resources for this year, but after that it will need tens of billions to continue the war and keep the country running at the same time.