According to a study by the Climate Risk Assessment Centre (Cerac) and the Federal Planning Bureau (FPB), climate change could have a serious negative impact on the Belgian economy. The study says that the country’s GDP could fall by as much as 5% by 2050.
GDP would fall by 2.8% by 2050 if there is there climate warming of 2°C between now and the end of this century. The loss in GDP would by 5% by 2050 if the climate were to warm up by 3°C. The figures from the FPB-Cerac study include costs associated with the "chronic risks" arising from a gradual increase in temperature and precipitation.
In addition to these there are also acute risks, such as floods and storms. "By 2050, depending on the warming scenario, the damage caused by acute natural disasters could reach 12% of GDP in the years in which they occur", the study says.
Climate change could also have an impact on public debt. Public debt could increase by 15 percentage points of GDP if there is strong warming.
Cerac and the Federal Planning Bureau say that the fiscal efforts required to absorb the impact of climate warming on the state coffers will range between 0.7% and 1.4% of GDP. The Federal Planning Bureau’s Baudouin Regout says that this is comparable to the impact of the aging population and increases in defence spending.