Raising the NATO norm of spending 5 per cent of GDP on defence seems little more than a formality. The formal decision will be taken at the NATO summit in the Hague at the end of June, but a preparatory meeting in Brussels last week made the direction of travel clear.
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Can Belgium comply with a NATO 5% of GDP defence spending norm?
Colin Clapson
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This means that Belgium too will eventually have to spend billions more a year on defence. The current Belgian government hopes only to achieve this difficult goal during the next parliament.
Does Belgium favour of the new norm?
The De Wever I federal government really has no choice but to conform to the new norm. As a small and poorly performing player, Belgium has little power within the alliance.
Defence Minister Theo Francken (Flemish nationalist N-VA) made it clear after the NATO meeting in Brussels last week that there is consensus on the 5 per cent norm and that as a result Belgium too will have to pull its weight. "We can handle that if we make the right choices," he posted on X.
"We are not doing this just to please Trump. To buy what is needed, with all countries together, and maintain it properly, you need about 3.5 per cent of GDP going on defence. That is also what was spent during the Cold War. If we can do that, we are very strong," the minister told VRT earlier this week.
That Mr Francken indicated that it was inevitable that Belgium would also move to the 5 per cent norm led to dissatisfaction among the federal coalition partners. Sammy Mahdi (Flemish Christian CD&V) said NATO ‘can decide that in the Hague’, but that it is ‘not very realistic’ for Belgium to comply with.
After Mr Francken's interview minister Frank Vandenbroucke (Flemish socialist Vooruit) indicated that ‘nothing has been decided yet.’
The new norm is all but certain but the government has not yet decided whether and how it will increase defence spending taking into account the new norm.
Kicked into the long grass?
The Belgian government is not planning to spend more than 2 per cent of GDP on defence during this term of office - that is, until 2029, Mr Francken writes on X. The government has no plans to implement the new NATO norm into new policy or additional spending. The discussion is being handed on to the next government.
The question is whether NATO will accept that Belgium is putting the issue on ice. NATO secretary general Mark Rutte indicated last week that he has a plan to prevent countries from doing so. ‘Countries will have to commit to annual plans showing the increase each year to ensure they reach the new 5 per cent target,’ the secretary-general said.