According to a forecast published by the European Commission the budget deficit in Belgium will rise to 5.4% of GDP this year. The European Commission forecasts a further rise in the budget deficit to 5.5% of GDP. Within the Eurozone only France is forecast to go deeper into the red than Belgium.
European Commission forecasts that Belgium’s budget deficit will rise to 5.4% in 2025
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Belgium ended 2024 with a budget deficit of 4.5%. EU rules state that countries within the Eurozone should keep their budget deficit below 3% of GDP. If the European Commission’s forecast is correct Belgium’s 2025 budget deficit will be far in excess of this.
By the end of 2026 the budget deficit is forecast to increase further to 5.5 percent. France is the only country in the Eurozone that is forecast to do worse.
But what are the causes of Belgium's growing budget deficit? Higher interest rates on loan repayments and higher contributions to the European Union’s budget are cited as the main factors. However, the European Commission believes that the new Federal Government’s labour market, pensions and tax policies will have a positive effect on the budget deficit.
Meanwhile, public debt is forecast to rise from 104.7% of GDP at the end of last year to GDP to 109.8% in 2026. The Belgian economy is forcast to grow by 0.8% this year and 0.9% next year. Issues such as uncertainty about US trade tariffs have made the European Commission revise down its growth forecasts.