Over 2,500 more people than expected have died from the flu in recent months. Due to the severity of the flu season, we are looking at a 10.8 per cent excess mortality rate in Belgium. ‘It’s the highest level in seven years,’ says virologist Steven Van Gucht. ‘We see these extra deaths mainly among people over 85.’ But there is also good news: in 2 weeks, the flu epidemic may finally be over.
The excess mortality rate in Belgium this flu season is already running at 10.8 per cent, according to figures from health science institute Sciensano. This means that 2,561 more people than expected have died in recent months.
So far, 26,363 deaths have been observed since the start of the flu season on 9 December last year. While only 23,802 deaths were predicted. Moreover, this figure could rise further in the coming weeks, as the flu season is not yet completely over.
Since the start of this year, Belgium has seen a statistically significant excess mortality rate, which persisted for 6 consecutive weeks.
Highest flu-related deaths in 7 years
The higher figures this year point to a severe flu season. ‘Some seasons are more severe than others,’ says Prof Van Gucht, ’but this year we saw a lot of cases of flu. Unfortunately, you can see that in the mortality figures as well.’
According to Prof Van Gucht, such high figures are not exceptional. ‘Although we have to go back 7 years, to 2018, for similar figures of excess mortality due to flu.’ That year saw 12.1 per cent excess mortality in Belgium. ‘A year earlier, in 2017, the figures were even higher.’ Then, there was 17.7 per cent excess mortality.
During the corona pandemic, we saw a temporary drop in the number of flu infections. ‘In 2020 and 2021, we saw very little flu,’ says virologist Van Gucht. ‘The excess mortality in these years was very much due to the COVID-19 virus.’
The figures could rise even further in the coming weeks, but the end of the flu season seems to be in sight. ‘The current flu season started on 9 December, we are already 3 months into it,’ Prof Van Gucht says. But in the meantime, it looks like the flu is past its peak. ‘Presumably, the flu epidemic will be over in about two weeks’.
Over-85s particularly badly affected
Although excess deaths are seen in every age group, those aged 85 and above are over-represented. 14.9 per cent excess mortality (1,612 additional deaths) is recorded among the over-85s.
‘6 out of 10 cases of excess mortality are people well above 80 years of age,’ says Prof Van Gucht. ‘This is not surprising, because these are often people with underlying conditions who are in residential care homes. So they are very vulnerable, and unfortunately in such cases a flu infection can be fatal.’
In addition, 7.1 per cent excess mortality (719 extra deaths) is also recorded among 65- to 84-year-olds, and 7.7 per cent (224 extra deaths) among people up to 64 years of age.