Belgium was not present at Keir Starmer’s London summit where European leaders discussed a plan to help end the war in Ukraine. Unlike his Dutch and Czech counterparts, Prime Minister Bart De Wever (Flemish nationalist N-VA) had received no invitation from the British Prime Minister. Should this surprise?
The contrast could hardly be greater. While Sir Keir in London explained that he was bringing European leaders together because we are at a ‘crossroads in history’, the Belgian prime minister posted a picture from his skiing holiday in Austria.
To be clear, that skiing holiday is not the reason for Mr De Wever’s absence. Belgium had not been invited.
Czech Republic yes, Belgium no
What initially was a small summit, planned between a few countries, grew into a broader European consultation following the clash between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and US President Donald J. Trump and vice-president JD Vance.
On Saturday the British PM then also sent invitations to the Netherlands, Finland, Spain, the Czech Republic and Romania, amongst others. In that way, most West European countries were represented. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and NATO boss Mark Rutte also got an invite.
That Belgium finds itself standing on the sidelines while Europe determines her geopolitical strategy is not surprising. Even at the summit that French President Emmanuel Macron called on Ukraine last week, Mr De Wever had not been invited to the Élysée Palace but followed proceedings by video link.
Too little money for defence
The explanation is simple: Belgium is simply not powerful or important enough to help set out the action. Belgium lacks so-called ‘hard power’, the military and economic impact to really weigh on the international stage.
In the current context, this lack of military clout plays a particular role. Belgium is among the worst performers when it comes to defence spending. NATO members are expected to spend 2 per cent of their Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on defence. Belgium today manages a paltry 1.3 per cent.
This does not make Belgium a credible military partner. Moreover, with European security at stake, defence spending is an important measure of diplomatic power.
Over the past decades, Belgium cut back on the military. In 2014, the government promised to turn the tide and invest to meet the NATO standard by 2024. But Belgium has failed to fulfil that promise. The current government hopes to change that and wants to reach the 2 per cent as soon as possible.
What do NATO states spend on defence (as percentage of national output)?
Small countries at the table cause delay
‘The countries that now decide the strategy are the ones with the most weight or with direct interests, because they are close to Ukraine and Russia, for example. We do not belong to either group,’ Alexander Mattelaer, professor of international relations at the Flemish Free University VUB, explains.
Including countries that cannot carry any weight in the talks anyway would slow things down. ‘It is precisely the intention of the big countries to be able to consult among themselves and move quickly. They expect the smaller countries will then simply follow when formal decisions have to be taken at EU or NATO level,’ Prof Mattelaer notes.
Why do Spain, which spends even less on defence, and the Czech Republic, an economically smaller country than Belgium, have a presence? ‘Spain is of course a big country. The country is also geographically distant from Ukraine, so it looks at it with different eyes than, say, Poland. I think Starmer reasons that it is also important to bring such a country into the story.’
In turn, the Czech Republic has the advantage that President Petr Pavel has a lot of military experience. He was chairman of NATO's military committee and once headed the Czech army.
‘The country has also taken the lead in connection with extra ammunition for Ukraine. Such things all play a role.’
Belgium made cuts on diplomacy too
It is not only militarily that Belgium seems insignificant, but the country has also cut back when it comes to diplomacy.
Belgium co-founded NATO and the European Union after World War II. ‘We had a say within these institutions and a very strong bilateral network. But our diplomacy has also been cut in recent decades. In that way, we have allowed a lot of our weight in the international arena to evaporate,’ Prof Mattelaer says. ‘And that naturally avenges itself at moments of crisis like this.’
It is understood Belgium counts on the Netherlands to put forward its position, PM De Wever and Dutch prime minister Dick Schoof are said to be in close contact.
Present on Thursday at EU summit
Speaking in parliament last week the prime minister stressed that he had already had ‘a lot of international contacts’ in the context of geopolitical developments. He also spoke with President Zelensky by phone and, together with the leaders of EU member states, was debriefed by French President Macron on the latter’s visit to US President Trump.
On Thursday, member states will meet for a European summit. On the agenda - as in London earlier - are the war in Ukraine and European security and defence. Belgium will be at the table just like the 26 other EU countries. Mr De Wever is returning early from his skiing holiday.