Friday 21 February is the self-imposed deadline of the man who for the past 8 and a half months has been trying to form a new regional government for Brussels. The Francophone liberal David Leisterh, whose party became the largest group in the regional parliament after last June’s elections has repeatedly stated that if a significant breakthrough towards forming a new regional coalition government is not made by close of play today, he will throw in the towel as “Formateur”. Efforts by Mr Leisterh during the past 2 weeks to try and get the talks back on track have thus far proved unsuccessful.
After more than 8 months the Brussels-Capital Region is still without a government, so what happens now?
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Almost 8 and a half months since the election, the Brussels-Capital Region is as far away as ever from having a new regional coalition government. In Brussels 2 majorities, 1 Dutch-speaking and 1 Francophone, are formed independently of each other before coalition talks proper can get under way and a new regional government can be formed. Initially, the Francophone parties (the liberals, socialists and centrists) quickly reached agreement on which parties would form their half of the regional coalition.
On the Dutch-speaking side this took longer, not least because of the vetoes some parties have against entering into coalitions with other parties with representatives in the regional parliament. All parties refuse to work with the far-right Vlaams Belang, most refuse to enter into coalitions with the far-left PVDA, while other refuse collaborate with Team Fouad Ahidar. However, after several months the Dutch-speaking parties reached agreement on the formation of their half of the coalition. The greens, the Flemish nationalist, the socialists and the liberals would provide a comfortable majority of 10 of the 17 seats allocated to Dutch speakers in the 89-seat regional parliament.
However, the Francophone socialists said that they would refuse to enter into a coalition with the Flemish nationalists and since then progress towards the formation of a new regional government has been at an impasse. If and when Mr Leisterh quits as "Formateur“ we will enter uncharted territory. Never before in the 35-year history of the Brussels-Capital has the “Formateur” thrown in the towel.
But who might succeed Mr Leisterh?
Mr Leisterh’s successor would be the Group Leader of the second largest party in the regional parliament, the Francophone socialist party (PS). However, the PS Group Leader Ahmed Laaouej has already indicated that he doesn't intend to enter into the fray. If all the vetoes remain in place it doesn’t seem likely that we can expect a breakthrough anytime soon.
Meanwhile, some are looking towards the largest party on the Dutch-speaking side, the greens. However, they are holding back.
But what now?
As constitutionally Brussels is autonomous region, It would be difficult for the federal government to intervene. There seem to be only 2 options: either appoint a new government “Formateur” or appoint a mediator to try and get the talks back on trach. However, it would be difficult for all parties to agree on who this should be.
A 3rd onother option would be start again from scratch.
As the Brussels Regional Parliament is elected for the fixed term of 5 years, new elections are not an option. Meanwhile, the lack of a new regional government means that the Brussels-Capital Region’s already hefty budget deficit is spiraling out of control.