Crisis centre warns that “Risk from sabotage, cyber-attacks and fake news is increasing”

The National Crisis Centre says that the risk posed by sabotage, espionage and cyber-attacks is on the increase and the impact can be significant. Disinformation campaigns and fake news are also feared. Not least because they can cause division in society and be the catalyst for radicalisation.

The National Crisis Centre says that the chance of an attack on a chemical production site or a nuclear power plant is very small. However, if such an attack were to occur the impact would be major.

NCC says that the risk of Belgium becoming involved in a war is quite low, but not inconceivable “as geopolitical and economic tensions increase”. Belgium's membership in NATO means that it could quickly become involved in a conflict without being directly attacked. 

Looking further ahead (2050 onwards) the Crisis Centre cites the threats posed to Belgium from climate change. As sea levels rise, there is a risk of coastal erosion and a changing coastline.

There are also risks posed by “invasive species”, such as the tiger mosquito or Japanese knotweed that may increase due to changes to our climate. New invasive species could pose a threat to agricultural crops, animals and humans.

From 2050, the risk of dike breaches will also be higher, as there may be more periods of torrential rain. Sea levels will also have risen by then and dikes are not always well maintained.

The Crisis Centre also warns of disruption caused by cyber-attacks. These may lead to the shutdown of a government department (for example, preventing pensions from being paid, or licences from being issued), or they could cause sensitive data to be stolen or leaked.

It is important to note that critical services such as the banks, the hospitals, the judiciary and the military are obliged to arm themselves against cyber-attacks and to report them when the occur. A cyber-attack on critical infrastructure could result in material damage.

The Crisis Centre's risk analysis serves as a guideline for the various public authorities and businesses when drawing up preventive contingency plans. 

In its most recent risk analysis, the National Crisis Centre lists 118 risks face by Belgium and the people that live here. A risk is defined as the product of probability times impact. In other words, how likely is the probability of something occurring and if it does occur what will the impact (the potential damage) be.

Impact can make itself felt in different ways. In the case of a dike breach, for example, this would be the number of fatalities and injuries, the surface area flooded and the economic damage caused. incurred (flooded buildings, infrastructure, crops, etc.).