Representatives of Flemish nationalist N-VA, Flemish socialist Vooruit, Flemish Christian democrat CD&V, Francophone liberal MR and Francophone centrist Les Engagés are meeting again to discuss the formation of a new Belgian government. The big question is whether formateur Bart De Wever (N-VA) will succeed in reaching a coalition agreement now the election fever generated by the local elections is out of the way. In August, things still went pear-shaped after MR leader Georges-Louis Bouchez torpedoed Mr De Wever’s super memorandum. Meanwhile, the local elections are behind us. All the parties involved in the federal talks, the so-called Arizona parties, as their colours appear on the flag of this US state, progressed and that may be the lubricant to overcome obstacles more smoothly, because those obstacles are still there.
Federal government: what are the challenges now formateur Bart De Wever sets back to work?
Last month, when the king extended Mr De Wever’s mandate until 17 October, the federal formation was basically lifted over the municipal elections. Since most of the top negotiators were also mayoral candidates, the risk of electoral fever infecting the formation talks was too high.
‘We kept working quietly every day,‘ says Bart De Wever. ‘But on the sensitive issues - the budget, socio-economic issues and migration - decisions will now have to be made.’
‘At the first attempt (i.e. in August) it did not succeed,’ Mr De Wever said. ‘I hope it will now succeed.’ The fact that all Arizona parties advanced on Sunday may help. There will be no ‘wounded animal’ at the negotiating table trying to sustain itself with additional demands.
That the MR won without a landslide victory for party leader Georges-Louis Bouchez in his native Mons is actually also good news: a victory-drunk Bouchez might have behaved unreasonably. According to political scientist Dave Sinardet (VUB), the five parties have had their recent success confirmed. This gives them the necessary legitimacy and may encourage them to form a government.
Obstacles remain
So the talks are starting under a favourable star, but that does not mean that the federal formation has suddenly become a walk in the Warande, the Park of Brussels. The fact that formateur Bart De Wever is not yet willing to rule out remaining mayor in his native Antwerp is significant.
‘Let me be clear,’ he said earlier. ‘Only when there is a government that puts migration policy on a different footing and makes the bills in this country end up with the right people, will I think it is worth going to Brussels.’
Arizona is a challenge for left-leaning Vooruit
‘I agree that we need to get our fiscal rules right,’ replied socialist leader Conner Rousseau. ‘But I hope this is done in a fair way.’ Mr Rousseau talks of ‘fair burden-sharing’, with the super-rich also having to contribute.
‘It should not be at the expense of health care and social security.’ Vooruit is in an awkward position because it is the only left-leaning party at the negotiating table. Mr Rousseau cannot possibly acquiesce to an overly right-wing coalition agreement and has to deliver something to his own - left-wing - constituency.
So there is a potential fault line there. In August, things backfired when MR leader Georges-Louis Bouchez rejected the formateur's socio-economic ‘super memorandum’: he saw the super memorandum's capital gains tax on shares as a particular problem.
The MR president reacts negatively to anything that smacks of an increase in the tax burden. Last week, he again made that clear during the opening lecture at the political sciences faculty of Ghent University.
The situation is complicated
But time is pressing, as Belgium’s budget deficit continues to rise and is well above the limit of 3 per cent of gross domestic product imposed on member states by the European Commission. Moreover, just last week ratings agency Moody's revised the outlook for Belgium’s finances from ‘stable’ to ‘negative’. It seems lots of savings are on the cards!
Just last month, Pierre Wunsch, the governor of the National Bank, indicated that the measures in De Wever's super memorandum will not suffice. ‘It contains too many measures that will only bring in cash if the economy flourishes,’ he said . ‘That is not only somewhat optimistic, but the EU does allow that kind of accounting!’
Mr Wunsch advocates a combination of savings and new taxes. ‘That is important, not only because Europe imposes such a requirement, but also because we no longer have a buffer to absorb the next crisis or recession.’
Talks under a bright star
The favourable constellation under which negotiators will resume talks is heartening, but dark financial clouds are gathering on the horizon. Will formateur De Wever succeed in reconciling the various political interests and in reducing the budget deficit to an acceptable level? ‘There is no guarantee of success,’ he said earlier.
‘If everyone acts responsibly, we can also restore confidence in the federal government,’ believes CD&V leader Sammy Mahdi.
The Belgian government should already have submitted next year's budget to European Commission scrutiny, but at De Wever's request, Belgium was granted a postponement until the end of this year. ‘It means there has to be a new government by the feast of St Nicholas,’ i.e. 6 December, says VRT political editor Ivan De Vadder. And that new government must, of course, also present a new budget.
Negotiators are now discussing how to proceed and the agenda for the coming weeks. Tomorrow, formateur De Wever must report back to King Filip, who is likely to extend Mr De Wever’s assignment.