Scientists at Ghent University are launching a project that will use artificial intelligence(AI) to analyse the crime figures of 19 Flemish police zones extensively in a bid to discover patterns. The project called BIGDATPOL will start after the summer. From autumn onwards, participating police zones will receive tailor-made predictions that should help prevent crime.
The team headed by criminologist Wim Hardyns (Ugent) has spent the past months preparing for the study by visiting the police zones that are taking part. The zones share crime figures that UGent then exposes to AI. ‘Up-to-date data provide the most accurate predictions,’ Prof Hardyns explains.
‘Very little strategic knowledge about crime is available. A large well-developed database could make a huge difference. Thanks to this data, in the future, we will above all be able to estimate when and where crimes will take place.’
‘Prevention is better than a cure’
The UGent team will not predict who will commit crimes. That, according to the researchers, is still too complex. There are also ethical concerns. ‘We are focusing on times and locations and respect privacy and human rights. That is central to our research.’
Researchers divide the participating police zones into street blocks that they link to data. ‘For example, we also taking into account whether there are any stations or cafes nearby. In areas with poor street lighting burglaries are more likely. The presence of escape routes plays a big role too. Also the weather is important. Criminals too prefer to stay at home when it rains,’ says Prof Hardyns.
The aim is to prevent crime and work in a more targeted, preventative manner. Police can focus on certain high-risk areas. ‘A first test phase, in the Zenne Valley police zone, gave promising results’. It allowed police zones to organise patrols differently. UGent's model will now be tested for a year.
First Belgium and later in other European countries
Prof Hardyns believes his model could be finalised within five years. If successful in Belgium, the plan is to roll it out in other European countries as well. The project also received backing from the EU.