The threat level in Belgium remains at level 3. That means that Belgium now faces a serious threat. "That is not expected to change before the end of the summer," says Gert Vercauteren, director of the OCAD, the government body that coordinates threat assessment.
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Belgium faces threat level 3 at least till summer's end
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Threat level 3 has been in place since October 2023, when a terrorist claiming adherence to the terrorist outfit IS murdered 2 Swedish football supporters in Brussels.
Eight months on, the threat level has still not dropped. "And that will not change before the end of the summer," explains Gert Vercauteren, the current OCAD chief. Level 3 means that "the threat is currently serious". Only level 4 is higher, at which point the threat is "very serious".
Gaza in the mix
"We look at several factors to determine the threat" explains Vercauteren. "The number of reports, their severity and the number of terror files the judiciary, the police and the intelligence services are dealing with, but also at ‘trigger events': events that have an emotional impact and can provoke reaction. The start of the conflict in Gaza brought such an event last October. The situation in our country is being monitored closely."
The OCAD recorded some 40 reports of threats in October and November that could be linked to the conflict, as well as some 40 minor incidents, in which anti-Semitism often played an important role. Even today, a significant proportion of threats are linked to the situation in the Middle East. It is the main reason why the level remains at 3. Even without the attack in Brussels in October, the level would have gone to 3, says Vercauteren.
Threat level 3 means that there is increased vigilance among police and security services. At major events this summer, for example, there may also be extra checks.
Threat is becoming increasingly diverse
In its annual report, the OCAD makes a broader analysis of the threat in our society. It is increasing. Last year, Belgium witnessed 332 reports of possible terrorism or extremism. That is an increase of 41 per cent compared to 2022.
Increasingly, it is unclear exactly from which angle the threat is coming. In 4 out of 10 reports, it was difficult precisely to delineate the ideology from which the threat emanated. This worries OCAD.
"The motives of perpetrators have become vaguer and more diverse. Whether and when someone takes action is always the result of an individual process, with ideology, propaganda and the copycat effect all playing a role. Perpetrators do not always associate themselves with a terror group as such, but they are eager consumers of what they encounter in the public space," the OCAD notes. In addition, personal grievances can also play an important role: There are often psychological issues or certain symbolic events that act as catalysts."
The threat from Islamist quarters remains the largest
Of all the threats where the ideology is clear, for Belgium it appears that the threat from Islamist quarters remains the biggest. Over 40 per cent of threat reports are associated with that angle.
Threats linked to a political opposition abroad are an important group too (7 per cent), followed by threats from right-wing extremists (5 per cent), anti-establishment sentiments (3 per cent) and threats from left-wing extremists (1 per cent).