The state body whose job it is to asses the threat posed to Belgium by terrorist and extremism says that the number of reports it received about terrorism and extremism in 2023 was up by more than 40% on 2022. During last year OCAD received a total of 332 reports on terrorism and/or extremism. The threat assessment body attributes the increase to the conflict in Gaza and the attack on Swedish football supporters in Brussels last October.
Just of one in four reports received by OCAD concerned a potential threat posed by an individual whose ideological motivation was unclear. These cases often involve personal grievances or psychological issues. The rest (59%) concerned people that were motivated by ideology. Last year 40% of the reports concerned Islamic extremism.
Over half of the reports received (55%) were rated as low threat. Just over a third were rated as medium threat and around 7% were serious treat at some point during the investigation.
Just one case, the shooting in Brussels on 16 October was ranked in the “very serious threat” category.
In the wake of the attack Belgium increased it terror alert threat level to 3 for the first time since 2018.
Trigger event
The attack on 16 October, like the Gaza conflict, is what OCAD calls a “trigger event”. Such events evoke strong emotions and can lead extremists to take action.
OCAD points out that the majority of reports that it receives concern people that are acting alone. They usually have no structural links to extremist groups. In 1 in 10 cases examined the person(s) concerned were plotting as a group.