Last year, for the first time in almost a decade, far fewer people than expected died. Belgian health institute Sciensano has several explanations for this: there were no extreme temperatures, air quality was good and there were no major flare-ups of flu or Covid-19. In previous years this latter disease caused many elderly and vulnerable people to die prematurely.
During the pandemic, we were introduced to the demographic term ‘excess mortality’: the fact that more people than expected die. Now the tide has clearly turned.
Figures from health institute Sciensano and statistics agency Statbel show that for the first time in almost a decade last year saw the opposite phenomenon: under-mortality.
A dip into the statistics reveals that 110,334 people died in Belgium last year, whereas the statistical model expected 113,106 people to perish. This amounts to an under mortality of -2.5% with 2,772 fewer deaths than predicted.
"We see this under-mortality in most age groups," epidemiologist Toon Braeye explains. It is most pronounced among people aged between 65 and 84 (-3.0%) and among men in general (-3.0% versus -1.5% among women of all ages).
Braeye puts the figures in historical perspective: "For comparable low mortality, we have to go back to the year 2014" . Back then, there were 2,724, or 2.5%, fewer deaths than expected.
Several explanations
So why is it that fewer people died last year? Sciensano has a number of different explanations.
Unlike previous years, factors that increase the risk of death (extreme temperatures, air pollution, infectious diseases) were much less present in 2023. Last year, for instance, there was no heavy flu season and large, deadly corona waves did not occur either.
The pandemic had caused many elderly and vulnerable people to die prematurely in previous years. That too no doubt contributed to last year's under mortality.
Especially in the first year of the pandemic, 2020, there were many more deaths than expected. The two major waves of the COVID-19 epidemic and a heat wave resulted in over 18,000 more deaths than expected in 2020.